The Dunsky-ICCT report, prepared for Natural Resources Canada, updates and expands on an earlier forecast, assessing more vehicle classes, grid impacts and policy options

A new forecast prepared for the government predicts greater public charging needs for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in Canada as well as issues like access to charging in multi-family buildings and significant grid upgrades.

The report (which follows and expands the scope of a 2022 charging needs study) is authored by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors and The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). It was submitted to Natural Resources Canada in February 2024 and publicly released at the beginning of July — the same time as the government’s latest round of ZEVIP request for proposals.

“The number of zero-emission LDVs on the road is expected to grow from approximately 480,000 today to 5 million by 2030, and eventually reach 21 million in 2040,” reads the report.

“This will require the installation of, on average, 40,000 public ports each year between 2025 and 2040, on top of the nearly 30,000 public ports currently available or planned in Canada.”

In short: Canada will need 679,000 public Level 2 and DC fast charging ports by 2040 and almost $300 million in grid upgrades.

In addition, the report predicts 1.6 million multi-unit residential building (MURB) parking spaces (30 per cent of existing units) will need retrofits to accommodate EV charging.

This will need to happen by 2030.

The updated numbers show slight increase from Dunsky’s earlier projections, which estimated Canada would need 643,000 public ports by 2040. And the 2024 projection shows a decrease in ports needed in multi-family residences (the 2022 projection was 3,191,000).

The ICCT was not part of the earlier Dunsky report.

MHDV charging access

The new forecast also looks at charging needs for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs).

“To meet the upper range of the federal sales targets, the number of zero-emission MHDVs on the roads under our policy reference scenario grows to 414,000 in 2030 and 2.4 million by 2040,” reads the report.

“The growth of demand for public MHDV charging starts at close to zero today but grows comparatively quickly over the near term, reaching 41,000 ports in 2030, before growing rapidly to reach 120,000 in 2035 and 275,000 in 2040…We expect that private and fleet depot charging will require an additional 217,000 ports in 2030 and 1.1 million in 2040.”

The report estimates the cost of the necessary charging infrastructure for MHDVs will be around $47 billion. The recommendation is for power to be available at the desired charging sites up to 10 years before the chargers are operational to avoid delays and capacity constraints.

“Our analysis does not specify where these investments will come from,” reads the report. “Given the scale of investments required, however, public funds will increasingly need to leverage additional private investments.”

Ensuring equitable access

The report anticipates much of the necessary charging infrastructure for passenger EVs will be in population centres. Coverage will be particularly dense in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. Up to one-third of the predicted ports may be located in workplaces with just 1-2 per cent on highways or roadside.

MHDVs will require more roadside charging ports given the nature of the routes.

“A recent study from the U.S. found that long-haul HDV infrastructure can be concentrated along a few ‘no regrets’ corridors, covering just 3 per cent of the national highway freight network…a strategic approach to target highway MHDV charging investments may help achieve adoption targets at lower cost,” states the report.

The four major provinces may account for 84 per cent of public light-duty vehicle (LDV) ports and 92 per cent of MHDV ports in 2040, predicts the forecast.

Grid readiness

In addition to charging infrastructure, the report contemplates the impact of charging growth on the grid.

“We estimate that LDV and MHDV charging could add up to approximately 4,300 MW of demand in 2030, growing to 22,500 MW in 2040. Our estimate of grid upgrades required to meet EV demand — including generation, transmission and distribution — ranges from $26 billion to $294 billion (mid-range: $94 billion) over the 2025 to 2040 period,” the research finds.

On a per-vehicle basis that amounts to $3,000 in grid cost per passenger vehicle and $17,000 per MHDV.

The report recommends smart grid upgrades to shift peak loads and using EVs as distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide grid resiliency. Successfully doing this will lower some of the costs predicted in the forecast.

Role of public policy

One of the most effective ways to offset strain on both the grid and charging infrastructure needs — along with the costs associated with both — is to reduce the number of kilometres driven.

“Under a scenario where Canadians drive 25 per cent fewer kilometres, the number of public LDV ports required is 58,000 lower in 2030 and 168,000 lower in 2040. In scenarios where effective charging power and utilization rates are higher, the number of public ports could fall by another 25,000,” reads the report.

“A 25 per cent decrease in driving distance would require significant investments in alternative modes of transport — including public transit, cycling and walking — as well as changes to urban planning and design to encourage less car-oriented communities.”

To achieve this, the report recommends robust public policies than what are in place today across most of Canada. Public policies would also extend to making EV-ready buildings mandatory across Canada.

“By 2040, we expect the majority of LDV and MHDV on-road vehicles to be either plug-in hybrid or battery electric,” concludes the report. “While our cost estimates suggest that the scale of investment required to accommodate EV load growth over the coming decades is significant, the consensus we heard from utilities across the country is that Canada’s ZEV regulated sales targets are feasible.”

The full report is available here.