A new Electric Mobility Canada report finds Canada’s ZEV sector is poised for major growth in the next 10 years that will impact industries, jobs and policies

Ernst & Young is projecting the economic outlook for zero-emission vehicle industry in Canada in a new report published today.

Electric Mobility Canada (EMC), a national industry association based in Quebec, commissioned the report, titled Electrifying progress: A complete economic outlook of the Canadian EV industry, to analyze how a transition to electrification would impact economic activity and employment in Canada.

According to Daniel Breton, EMC’s president and CEO, “The Electrifying progress report highlights the importance of transportation electrification as a growth sector in the Canadian economy.

“Electric mobility is positioned to be a leading industry in terms of new jobs and economic growth in all regions of Canada.”

In short, the impact — even in the most conservative scenarios — will be felt across multiple sectors, including transportation, energy, mining and manufacturing. Growth will be “significant.”

Impact at a glance

For the medium term, the report projects that by 2035, e-mobility will account for 47 per cent of the transportation sector’s GDP — a nearly threefold jump from an anticipated 17 per cent contribution in 2026.

(EMC defines “e-mobility” as all electric vehicles, including passenger cars, multi-purpose vehicles, pickup trucks, medium and heavy-duty trucks, vans and buses.)

With this growth will come even greater employment opportunities. In the medium-growth forecasts, the report estimates employment in the e-mobility sector will nearly triple; rising from 16 per cent in 2026 to 45 per cent in 2035.

The report’s least optimistic growth predictions estimate e-mobility will account for 39 per cent of the transportations sector’s GDP share and 37 per cent of mobility job share. That is in comparison with the report’s most ebullient projections that the e-mobility share for GDP and jobs could rocket to 97 per cent and 89 per cent, respectively.

“EMC is optimistic about the economic potential of the electric mobility sector in Canada” says Breton. “In these uncertain times, Canada has the potential to create hundreds of thousands of well-paid, sustainable jobs, many of which cannot be relocated.”

Ripple effect

In addition to the direct impact of e-mobility on the transportation sector, the Electrifying progress report anticipates “key changes due to electrification” in the following sectors:

• Raw materials and parts;
• Tier 1 and Tier 2;
• Recycling and disposal;
• Charging infrastructure;
• Maintenance and repair;
• Universities and educational systems;
• Public policy and regulations;
• Innovation and R&D; and
• Associations and partnerships.

The report is also clear that consumer demand for ZEVs will increase over the decade, driving the economic case for its forecasts.

“It is expected that EVs, as a share of vehicles on the road, will increase substantially after 2030, representing between 21 per cent (Nunavut) and 75 per cent (Quebec) of the light-duty fleet by 2035,” reads the report.

“ZEV [medium- and heavy-duty vehicles] are forecasted to follow similar trend as the light-duty vehicle market, reaching 50 per cent of overall MHDV sales by 2035.”

The analysis does acknowledge the as-yet-undetermined impact of rising trade tariffs between Canada and the United States and concludes that major change is coming.

As the report says, Canada is “rapidly shifting from a fossil fuel-dominated, centralized energy system to an energy ecosystem that integrates a multitude of generators, providers, solutions and commercial relationships.”